Bear market rally

Markets refused to sell off yesterday, holding the gap up from the morning, which was quit strong. Some of the old big runners like RIMM,AAPL,BIDU,GOOG were on the big move today. In terms of earnings WFC posted -0,79 $ a share, nevertheless the stock spiked around 20 % higher....is greed back in control of Wall St.? We will see how long this lasts, usually bear market rallies like this are past pretty fast when reality and in the end fear set in again. Lot of intresting charts on the long side out there right now. CLR which I had on my list some days ago, is setting up a minor spot again at 24. CMG should be intresting above 51 and CMI might take out 27. If AG`s are strong I will consider CF if it can break above 50.

FED day

Yesterday`s trading session was the continuation of monday`s action and essentially we chopped around all day. Although I know that this kind of action is likely to happen on pre-fed days, I still managed to overtrade instead of taking the day off. Anyway, today is FED decision day and although markets look bullish short term for now I remain very, very careful here. Right now, futures are up considerably but I won`t buy the hype at the open. Waiting and let things settle down. Stay smart.

AAPL, Oils and Gold

Yesterday was kind of a difficult trading environment for me. We rallied hard at the open, especially oils and some gold names which sold down with the market later in the day. Markets still managed to close positive, however we are somewhat in no-man`s land and I am waiting to see some meaningful direction with volume. From the stocks I watched CLR acted best with almost a 2 $ move up from the level I mentioned. AAPL hit my number yesterday, moved slowly up to 91 which is resistance and coincides with the down-trendline, did nothing there and came back later in the day. However the major number now to watch is 91. A break with strong volume would get me long this name. Beside this I don`t see to many set-ups right now. Not sure where the oils and gold stocks will go today, the charts are not yet broken but a rest could be in.

No bias

The last 2 days of the past trading week showed once again how important it is to be flexible and not be attached to any bias to any side. Market got hit by bad earnings news on both days but fighted back in an impressive way and if we can get any kind of follow through action on the bull side early in this week we could get a rally for some weeks or so. However, at this point it could easily go the other way and flexibility is key. Earnings season continues and CAT just announced some bad figures, however futures point to a flat open. In terms of possible candidates for long trades I still watch AAPL for a break of 90 and CLR above 22. Gold and Oil stocks seem to be on the move and are worth watching (HES,ABX,AEM,GOLD). Hope everyone is having a good start in the new trading week.

GOOG, GE, SLB

I wasn`t in the office yesterday, however as far as I could see it`s going up and down +300 points on a daily basis, and the psychological level of 8000 in the DJIA is on the focus. Tough to say what is going to happen in the very short term, however bad news are overhelming and come from all corners of the world - see earnings news of Sony or UK GDP. GOOG reported yesterday and earnings were quit ok, GE just reported in line, while SLB missed, Futures are down following the overseas markets. I will be watching HANS through 32 for a short as well as AGU and MOS. In the case we start a rally today, which may not look very straight-forward right now but better be prepared for everything in this market, I will look for follow thorugh on AAPL through 90, ALXN above 38 and see what GOOG can make after its earnings news in a more friendly environment.

Broken

So we got the answer to the question I raised in my last post already in yesterday`s session - we broke major support areas due to dramatic declines in the bank stocks (C,BAC,...). No telling how this all will turn out and how these financials will look at the end of this year. My guess is that a wave of nationalization is in the cards. Anyway, trading resumes as usual and there are some nice looking charts out. On the short side I would like to see ADM break through 24, AGU through 29 and CMI 23. Even if the market turns up a bit today I will be very careful here on the long side as markets are in really bad shape again, however the names I will have a look are RIMM and SYNA again from yesterdays post.

Breaking support or rally attempt?

Friday brought a nice breakout of TSO at 15 that I was mentioning here for the last week. Although the troubles of the financial sector, the market was able to hold the major support area in the SPY around 82. We might attempt a rally from here, however it will be tough with financials heading towards new lows. BAC seems to take another deep discount today and probably will trade <5 $ soon. It will be interesting how long the market can hold the support as financials just keep on falling. With earnings season really kicking in this week, it should get another intresting week in the markets. I have GS 69, AAPL and EOG on my short list. In case we are trying to rally I like RIMM, SYNA and ALXN for break above 38. Have a good start in the trading week.

Futures slightly down

Financials seem to be leading the way down once again and it seems just a matter of time when we hit the November 08 lows and possibly break them. News from that sector keep hitting day after day - this time it`s BAC`s looking for money to aid them with their Merill acquisition. Beside all the financials I will have a look at ISRG and CMI for lower prices. If we bounce from here, it will be short-term only if you ask me.

Agricutlure getting hit

Bad earnings news out from BG - down >5 $ let the AG`s break down hard in pre-market. Keep the respective names (POT, CF, ADM, AGU) on your list.

Option expiry week

Options are expiring this week and we could see some more whipsaw action like yesterday, which forced me to stay rather passive. No telling where we will go from here in the very near term, however mid-term i`m bearish as I said here many times before. Overseas markets are heading lower with bad news hitting the market from the financials front again and Futures are down a bit. I find the whole AG group intresting on the short side, annd have eg. BG through 47 on my list. Other than these, watch the financials as always. On the long side TSO is developing nicely, however if a signifcant long breakout will occur in that market environment remains with some doubt. However, keep on radar just in case we get some more bullish short time environment. A break of 15 on high volume with a market not tanking would probably get me in.

Another tank?

You read about the overbought condition that i was posting here since early last week and the end of the week brought the expected selling, which caused some notable damage to the charts. We`re near suppport levels in the major indicies, and it looks like we will break them soon, which could bring up a retest of the lows set last year. If you ask me, I would guess we retest before that quarter passes, but thats just me. Caution is king here. One of the short names on my list today is AAPL on the 90 area. In case we are going to bounce from here TSO has a nice chart over 15.

Bulls control

Another day with solid gains for many stocks as sellers are still absent, driving the market in more extreme overbought levels. I pointed to the overbought condition yesterday, however this of course doesn`t mean that I not took part in the fun, as it became clear that the market won`t sell off. I catched a few AMZN and some MA for a couple of points. An overbought condition should not in general prevent from buying stocks, but I am more careful and tighten stops more than usual - but thats just how i play it. I still believe some sort of pullback should come very soon, but no telling what happens after that. My ideal scenario would be some days of moderate selling before another substantial move up. If this will happen? No idea! For now let`s stay with the crowd and be flexible if things are changing. EOG from yesterday still on my list today, also BG 57 area fora possible long and TXI maybe on the short side.

Futures moving up

A quite day for me yesterday, as I did not take any trades. Right now futures are in the positive and it seems another strong open is on the agenda. However, yesterdays minor selling action towards the end of the session did in no mean resolve the overbought condition in which we are still in. Although I see some nice looking charts in the stock world and I won`t fight the tape, I will be very careful with initiating any long positions here, as I think some major selling pressure could come up in the next couple of days. Yesterday was a no-trade day for me, and today might be similar as I won`t buy a possible gap up at the open, and not recommend anyone to do so. As always some of the names I will watch: EOG 73 level, GNK around 19 and NYX around 30 - all for possible longs. Watch out the AG`s too as MOS reported earnings and this should move the sector in one way or another. Stay smart and have a good day!

The week of the truth

Today the new year in the stock markets is "really" starting, it`s the first full trading week in the new year and the market must confirm that the low volume holiday rally of the last week can be sustained, if that happens this could become a nice short-term rally to trade. However, at the moment we are quit a bit overbought, so the potential for some rest action in the coming days is high. Anyway it should be an intresting week with the volume hopefully coming back in and giving the market some direction. For today I don`t watch to many stocks as I prefer to let the dust settle down a bit before getting more active again. However, two of the names on my list are AMZN and BGC for possible long trades, on the short side I will keep watching commodoities and financials for some intraday setups.