New lows

Like I posted here at the start of the trading year the markets came all back to their lows set out last year and below. February is always a brutal month and so far this holds true for this year as well. There wasn`t much to post in the last couple of days as we just keep on grinding lower, slowly and steadily. For me it seems like the days of panic selling that we saw in October/November 2008 are gone for now, and the markets are entering a new phase in this bear market, namely the slow and steady bleeding. This is part of the game, and I tend to interpret it as a positive, although we are still far from finding a bottom we come one step closer. But no doubt, there`s still a long way to go and it will get even more difficult to make money in this market. Back to the shorter time frame, I am careful here with entering new shorts as the market is heavily oversold and a bounce might be coming up soon. For today, mostly I will watch the AG`s which had a terrible session yesterday and seem to be setting up for a move down shortly. Stay smart.

Buy the rumour, Sell the news

After all, that is one of the few sentences that holds true most of the times on Wall Street and so did yesterday. And honestly, the speech of Geithner really didn`t offer anything "great" the market was clearly looking for. No solutions at all, just the plan that they are planning to solve it, just how this could happen seems still in the dark. Now we are close to support levels on the SPY and the market seems ready to head lower over the next few weeks. Like I stated here before, I think we will re-test last years low and probably break them. Although it was a nice rally over the last 2 weeks. Today is another important day, as we will see if bulls can regain some of their momentum after yesterday`s plunge or if they`re giving it up for now.

Big Week Ahead

Nice rally on Friday, unsurprisingly as the markets love to rally on announcements of upcoming bailout/stimulus plans. This week the stimulus package should get the OK and tomorrow details about the recovery plan for financials will be released. From the past we know how hard we can sell off after the bailout is finally released. Let`s hope this time will be different. Good luck for this week to everyone.

Nice

There was a nice party going on yesterdays morning (GOOG,AAPL,CF just to name a few), and even some of the financials joined in (GS). Later we sold off and you got to be quick to lock in profits. As I said here yesterday, in this market environment its best to take what the market gives you and not hang around out there until things turn against you. ISRG, from my yesterdays note is another example of that. Futures are down today and it could get intresting with unemployment figures out tomorrow. ENR looks like a short to me if it can break 46.

Choppy

Another choppy day in the market with light volume. The only intresting thing about yesterday was, that we rallied while the financials were down and didn`t participate at all. Let`s see how this will play out. I guess today will be not much different from yesterday, it seems like the Street is waiting for something - maybe the pass of the stimulus package. As always, some names of my list: ALXN might be ready now for breaking 38 resistance, and if ferts are on the move CF has an intresting spot at 50 for a long. ICE above 60 mCF, ight offer another setup.

ISRG

That was ISRG yesterday with a nice move on good volume out of this basing area. Usually in this environment its best to take profits rather soon as stocks are rare to be on the move for more than 1-3 days.

Ugly

As I warned here last week when the market moved up in the pre-fed days it all ended soon, with some stabilisation coming in yesterday. We are sitting near support levels again in the SPY and sooner or later we will break through imo. Right now, I don`t feel its much of a friendly environment out there for traders like me, and you`ve got to be extra careful in order to stay profitable or at least in the business. My guess is 2009 won`t get any better for us, however hopefully I am wrong and we will get a nice environment for trading. According to all that, I don`t have to many to watch today, mainly keeping ISRG above 107 in my mind for a possible trade. GOOG had a decent run in the last weeks and might go a bit more far, so I will keep looking for possible entries if markets going up today. However, most charts are just looking ugly and so is my feeling on this market, we will retest - sooner or later.

Bear market rally

Markets refused to sell off yesterday, holding the gap up from the morning, which was quit strong. Some of the old big runners like RIMM,AAPL,BIDU,GOOG were on the big move today. In terms of earnings WFC posted -0,79 $ a share, nevertheless the stock spiked around 20 % higher....is greed back in control of Wall St.? We will see how long this lasts, usually bear market rallies like this are past pretty fast when reality and in the end fear set in again. Lot of intresting charts on the long side out there right now. CLR which I had on my list some days ago, is setting up a minor spot again at 24. CMG should be intresting above 51 and CMI might take out 27. If AG`s are strong I will consider CF if it can break above 50.

FED day

Yesterday`s trading session was the continuation of monday`s action and essentially we chopped around all day. Although I know that this kind of action is likely to happen on pre-fed days, I still managed to overtrade instead of taking the day off. Anyway, today is FED decision day and although markets look bullish short term for now I remain very, very careful here. Right now, futures are up considerably but I won`t buy the hype at the open. Waiting and let things settle down. Stay smart.

AAPL, Oils and Gold

Yesterday was kind of a difficult trading environment for me. We rallied hard at the open, especially oils and some gold names which sold down with the market later in the day. Markets still managed to close positive, however we are somewhat in no-man`s land and I am waiting to see some meaningful direction with volume. From the stocks I watched CLR acted best with almost a 2 $ move up from the level I mentioned. AAPL hit my number yesterday, moved slowly up to 91 which is resistance and coincides with the down-trendline, did nothing there and came back later in the day. However the major number now to watch is 91. A break with strong volume would get me long this name. Beside this I don`t see to many set-ups right now. Not sure where the oils and gold stocks will go today, the charts are not yet broken but a rest could be in.

No bias

The last 2 days of the past trading week showed once again how important it is to be flexible and not be attached to any bias to any side. Market got hit by bad earnings news on both days but fighted back in an impressive way and if we can get any kind of follow through action on the bull side early in this week we could get a rally for some weeks or so. However, at this point it could easily go the other way and flexibility is key. Earnings season continues and CAT just announced some bad figures, however futures point to a flat open. In terms of possible candidates for long trades I still watch AAPL for a break of 90 and CLR above 22. Gold and Oil stocks seem to be on the move and are worth watching (HES,ABX,AEM,GOLD). Hope everyone is having a good start in the new trading week.

GOOG, GE, SLB

I wasn`t in the office yesterday, however as far as I could see it`s going up and down +300 points on a daily basis, and the psychological level of 8000 in the DJIA is on the focus. Tough to say what is going to happen in the very short term, however bad news are overhelming and come from all corners of the world - see earnings news of Sony or UK GDP. GOOG reported yesterday and earnings were quit ok, GE just reported in line, while SLB missed, Futures are down following the overseas markets. I will be watching HANS through 32 for a short as well as AGU and MOS. In the case we start a rally today, which may not look very straight-forward right now but better be prepared for everything in this market, I will look for follow thorugh on AAPL through 90, ALXN above 38 and see what GOOG can make after its earnings news in a more friendly environment.

Broken

So we got the answer to the question I raised in my last post already in yesterday`s session - we broke major support areas due to dramatic declines in the bank stocks (C,BAC,...). No telling how this all will turn out and how these financials will look at the end of this year. My guess is that a wave of nationalization is in the cards. Anyway, trading resumes as usual and there are some nice looking charts out. On the short side I would like to see ADM break through 24, AGU through 29 and CMI 23. Even if the market turns up a bit today I will be very careful here on the long side as markets are in really bad shape again, however the names I will have a look are RIMM and SYNA again from yesterdays post.

Breaking support or rally attempt?

Friday brought a nice breakout of TSO at 15 that I was mentioning here for the last week. Although the troubles of the financial sector, the market was able to hold the major support area in the SPY around 82. We might attempt a rally from here, however it will be tough with financials heading towards new lows. BAC seems to take another deep discount today and probably will trade <5 $ soon. It will be interesting how long the market can hold the support as financials just keep on falling. With earnings season really kicking in this week, it should get another intresting week in the markets. I have GS 69, AAPL and EOG on my short list. In case we are trying to rally I like RIMM, SYNA and ALXN for break above 38. Have a good start in the trading week.

Futures slightly down

Financials seem to be leading the way down once again and it seems just a matter of time when we hit the November 08 lows and possibly break them. News from that sector keep hitting day after day - this time it`s BAC`s looking for money to aid them with their Merill acquisition. Beside all the financials I will have a look at ISRG and CMI for lower prices. If we bounce from here, it will be short-term only if you ask me.

Agricutlure getting hit

Bad earnings news out from BG - down >5 $ let the AG`s break down hard in pre-market. Keep the respective names (POT, CF, ADM, AGU) on your list.

Option expiry week

Options are expiring this week and we could see some more whipsaw action like yesterday, which forced me to stay rather passive. No telling where we will go from here in the very near term, however mid-term i`m bearish as I said here many times before. Overseas markets are heading lower with bad news hitting the market from the financials front again and Futures are down a bit. I find the whole AG group intresting on the short side, annd have eg. BG through 47 on my list. Other than these, watch the financials as always. On the long side TSO is developing nicely, however if a signifcant long breakout will occur in that market environment remains with some doubt. However, keep on radar just in case we get some more bullish short time environment. A break of 15 on high volume with a market not tanking would probably get me in.

Another tank?

You read about the overbought condition that i was posting here since early last week and the end of the week brought the expected selling, which caused some notable damage to the charts. We`re near suppport levels in the major indicies, and it looks like we will break them soon, which could bring up a retest of the lows set last year. If you ask me, I would guess we retest before that quarter passes, but thats just me. Caution is king here. One of the short names on my list today is AAPL on the 90 area. In case we are going to bounce from here TSO has a nice chart over 15.

Bulls control

Another day with solid gains for many stocks as sellers are still absent, driving the market in more extreme overbought levels. I pointed to the overbought condition yesterday, however this of course doesn`t mean that I not took part in the fun, as it became clear that the market won`t sell off. I catched a few AMZN and some MA for a couple of points. An overbought condition should not in general prevent from buying stocks, but I am more careful and tighten stops more than usual - but thats just how i play it. I still believe some sort of pullback should come very soon, but no telling what happens after that. My ideal scenario would be some days of moderate selling before another substantial move up. If this will happen? No idea! For now let`s stay with the crowd and be flexible if things are changing. EOG from yesterday still on my list today, also BG 57 area fora possible long and TXI maybe on the short side.

Futures moving up

A quite day for me yesterday, as I did not take any trades. Right now futures are in the positive and it seems another strong open is on the agenda. However, yesterdays minor selling action towards the end of the session did in no mean resolve the overbought condition in which we are still in. Although I see some nice looking charts in the stock world and I won`t fight the tape, I will be very careful with initiating any long positions here, as I think some major selling pressure could come up in the next couple of days. Yesterday was a no-trade day for me, and today might be similar as I won`t buy a possible gap up at the open, and not recommend anyone to do so. As always some of the names I will watch: EOG 73 level, GNK around 19 and NYX around 30 - all for possible longs. Watch out the AG`s too as MOS reported earnings and this should move the sector in one way or another. Stay smart and have a good day!

The week of the truth

Today the new year in the stock markets is "really" starting, it`s the first full trading week in the new year and the market must confirm that the low volume holiday rally of the last week can be sustained, if that happens this could become a nice short-term rally to trade. However, at the moment we are quit a bit overbought, so the potential for some rest action in the coming days is high. Anyway it should be an intresting week with the volume hopefully coming back in and giving the market some direction. For today I don`t watch to many stocks as I prefer to let the dust settle down a bit before getting more active again. However, two of the names on my list are AMZN and BGC for possible long trades, on the short side I will keep watching commodoities and financials for some intraday setups.